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February 2, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

All anyone really was looking for in the January employment report was wage growth, and for once, we got it. The headline numbers were all very strong, and the details were too – with a few exceptions. The decline in the average workweek meant that... Read more

January 30, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The U.S. economy is running a little hot these days, and while that's an outcome a lot of policymakers have been justifiably striving for, there are already signs of how that could eventually get us all into trouble. The latest data on consumer... Read more

January 5, 2018 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The December employment report had a few ugly headlines and highlights, but the overall message was that recent trends remain intact. Nonfarm payrolls were disappointing, but they offset two above-trend months and remain well above the level needed... Read more

December 13, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Chair Yellen's final press conference was a fitting swan song for the Federal Reserve's first female leader and the one to shut the door on the institution's crisis era. In the broad strokes, it went as planned: the Fed delivered a rate hike and... Read more

December 11, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The December Fed meeting will be a funny combination of momentous and moot. On the one hand, a rate hike is all but assured and the impending leadership transitions lower the information value of the Federal Open Market Committee’s projections. Read more

December 8, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

This was a good jobs report, but an un-loveable one – at least for the wonks (economists, journalists, and policy makers). The overarching message was that, with months of hurricane-related volatility behind us, the U.S. labor market remains in very... Read more

November 3, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Even more than most, the October jobs report rewards focusing on the trend lines. While the establishment and household surveys extended their recent divergence, both surveys featured tantalizing signs of the labor market not only continuing to... Read more

October 6, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

Beneath the Headlines, a Clear Sign for December: the September Jobs Report Read more

September 21, 2017 | Author: Josh Wright, Chief Economist

The September FOMC meeting provided Chair Yellen one of the ultimate achievements in central banking: boredom in the midst of momentousness. In this, it served as a fitting capstone for her (first or only?) tenure as Fed Chair, which has been... Read more
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