iCIMS Monthly Hiring Indicator: Job-Filling Rate Drops Off, Signaling More Wage Pressures to Come

HOLMDEL, N.J. [November 1, 2018] – Job openings increased by 13 percent and hires increased by 2 percent in October 2018, on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Monthly Hiring Indicator (MHI) produced by iCIMS Inc., a leading provider of cloud-based talent acquisition solutions.

The MHI is based on iCIMS data, which measures user activity within its platform. After netting out layoffs, quits, and other separations, hiring figures translate directly into payroll growth, and openings translate into future hires. Drawing on a database of more than 75 million applications and one million hires per quarter by more than 4,000 customers, iCIMS publishes monthly sets of statistics on hiring activity.

October 2018 Report Highlights

• The job-filling rate – calculated here as the ratio of new hires to new openings – dropped to a new low of 84 percent, from 93 percent. The outsized drop reflects an unusually large discrepancy between hires and openings in October, but it is consistent with a downward trend in place since 2017. This is another sign of how tight the labor market is getting and suggests the recent acceleration in wage growth is set to continue.
• Hiring was strong in retail trade – up 25 percent before seasonal adjustments. This reflects a pop from the holiday hiring season, but it is actually below the 34-percent rise in October 2017, suggesting the underlying weak trend in retail employment will to continue in this month’s payroll report.
• Manufacturing, business services, and education/healthcare all had strong months, seeing double-digit growth in both hires and openings before seasonal adjustments.
• The Midwest posted the weakest numbers. It was the only region not to see double-digit growth in both job openings and hires, before seasonal adjustments. Hires there grew 9 percent, compared to a 5 percent climb in openings, so on net it reduced the drop in the overall, nation-wide job-filling rate.

“This is another sign that this hot labor market just won’t quit, despite the turbulence we see in financial markets,” said Josh Wright, chief economist at iCIMS. “We have seen some mixed messages in recent surveys of consumer and business sentiment, but the labor market appears to be shrugging them off for the time being. If corporations are concerned about the economic outlook in the medium-term, in the very near term, they still seem focused on bringing in fresh talent to capitalize on the good days while they last.”

About the iCIMS Monthly Hiring Indicator (MHI) Methodology:

The iCIMS Monthly Hiring Indicator (MHI) measures job openings and new hires, based on iCIMS system data, which is generated by user activity within our platform. iCIMS processes more than one million hires per quarter and 75 million applications per year. While iCIMS supports employers across the globe, the MHI is based on U.S. hiring activity only. The figures present both indexes of hiring activity and their month-over-month percentage change, using a fixed panel of customers. To facilitate comparison with benchmark data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, iCIMS publishes its indexes both with and without seasonal adjustments. To learn more about iCIMS’ MHI and the methodology visit iCIMS Hiring Insights.