U.S. hiring stalls and holiday retailers brace for their smallest season since 2008

October 21, 2026

 

Trent Cotton

4 min read

U.S. hiring, job openings and applications are all dropping together for the first time this year, while EMEA is showing early, uneven signs of a turnaround. Holiday hiring is feeling the squeeze the most.

Key stats you need to know:

• U.S. hiring sat 7% below baseline in September, the steepest drop ICIMS platform data has recorded this year.
• EMEA applications climbed to 6% above baseline, their first positive reading since early summer.
• Frontline applicants per opening (APO) fell to 29 in September, down from 40 a year ago.

If you are planning Q4 staffing, build your plan around a thinner, more selective candidate pool, not around last year’s volume.

If you are finalizing Q4 staffing plans, the ICIMS Insights October Workforce Report gives you the clearest signal yet. U.S. hiring, job openings and application volume are now all moving in the same direction at once—down—and EMEA is showing the first hints of a turnaround, though it has not reached every market yet. As the retail industry braces for its busiest season, the squeeze is showing up everywhere, from corporate hiring to the frontline applicant pool.

U.S. hiring cools as the summer rebound unwinds

ICIMS platform data shows U.S. hiring fell -7% below the baseline September 2025, the steepest drop of the year, while job openings cooled to 3% above baseline, down sharply from 12% in July. Application volume slipped to -8% below baseline.

Earlier in the year, the strain showed up as a gap between metrics, with job openings rising while hiring lagged behind. That gap has closed. Hiring, job openings and applications are now all moving in the same direction, which means the slowdown you are feeling is not isolated to one part of your funnel.

Friday’s BLS jobs report backs up the trend: September payrolls rose by just 29,000, well below the 45,000 average pace of the prior year, with unemployment holding at 4.2%.

EMEA shows signs of life, but the U.K. and France are still cooling

ICIMS platform data tells a more encouraging story in EMEA, on the surface.

Hiring came in at -14% below the September 2025 baseline, an improvement from August, while openings sat -5% below baseline and applications climbed to 6% above baseline, their first positive reading after dipping over the summer. Three metrics turning up together in the same month could mark the start of a recovery.

But when you look market-by-market, the picture gets more complicated. Indeed Hiring Lab data shows U.K. job postings down -11% so far this year and still well below pre-pandemic levels, with youth unemployment near a 12-year high. France shows a similar decline, with postings falling and youth unemployment climbing past 21%.

If you are hiring across the region, the rebound has not reached every market yet, so do not assume one good month resets your whole EMEA plan.

Holiday hiring enters its toughest season in years

Nowhere is the caution clearer than in holiday staffing. ICIMS platform data shows frontline applicants per opening (APO) fell to 29 in September, down from 40 a year ago and the lowest point of the year. Time to fill has not moved to match, holding at 37 days, the same mid-30s range it has held all year. Fewer applicants means more leverage and less patience on the candidate side, so a conversion process built for speed is your advantage this season, not a nice to have.

Retailers appear to be planning around that same caution: Challenger, Gray and Christmas projects just 450,000 seasonal positions this quarter, down from 543,100 two years ago and the smallest holiday hiring total since 2008.

What this means for your team

Put it together and the message is consistent: demand has not disappeared, but your margin for error has. A thinner, more selective candidate pool means every applicant matters more than it did a year ago. If you adjust now, faster response times, clearer communication and a process built for how candidates apply today, you will be positioned to fill your seats before your competitors do.

Want the full breakdown, including what Gen Z candidates say matters most this season and whether AI is helping or hurting your hiring process? Read the full ICIMS Insights October Workforce Report or talk to our team about how ICIMS helps you hire with less effort and better ROI, even in a stalled market.

GET THE FULL REPORT

Download the ICIMS Insights October Workforce Report at www.icims.com/insights for the full U.S. and EMEA data and a preview of the holiday hiring season for the retail industry.