Inside the 2026 Job Market: Where the Real Movement Is

February 10, 2026

 

Trent Cotton

5 min read

Most headlines say the labor market is slowing, but the iCIMS Insights January Workforce Report paints a different picture. Our data shows job openings are rising, candidates are selectively active and internal talent is signaling ambition in ways leaders cannot afford to ignore.

Heading into 2026, the challenge is less about finding movement in the market and more about knowing where to look and how to respond.

Where are the jobs in early 2026?

Despite talk of a cooldown, 2025 closed with more labor market activity than a typical year-end. Job openings rose 6% month-over-month in December and 8% year-over-year. This was a break from the usual holiday slowdown employers expect. That uptrend suggests demand remains, even if it is more targeted and sector-specific than in previous cycles.

Momentum was concentrated in several key industries. Manufacturing openings increased 2% month over month, Healthcare rose 8% and Transportation, 12% in December. Those gains in logistics, care delivery, and production point to industries planning for growth and resilience, even as others remain cautious about headcount.

Are candidates really flooding the market?

Candidate activity is up, but not in a way that supports the “wave of resumes” narrative. Applications increased 7% year over year, in line with the unemployment rate hitting its highest level in four years in November. Rather than blanket applying, job seekers appear to be more intentional about where they invest their time and attention.

External and internal applicant activity tells complementary stories. External applications grew 6% year over year in December, while external hires rose 5%, showing sustained appetite for outside talent even as employers remain selective. This points to a market where candidates see opportunities worth pursuing, but hiring teams remain disciplined about fit and impact.

What does internal mobility data really say?

Internal mobility is one part of the 2026 talent strategy leaders cannot afford to overlook. Internal applications climbed 8% year–over–year in December, while internal hires edged down 1%, revealing a gap between employees’ desire to grow and organizations’ willingness or ability to pull the trigger. That tension reinforces the “job hugging” trend, where workers stay put with their current employers while quietly exploring new internal roles and pathways.

There may also be an emerging skills mismatch behind the numbers. Openings are rising faster than hires in several sectors, which raises questions about whether organizations can find or develop the skills they need from within at the speed the business requires. Although our data does not directly point to this dynamic, attention may increasingly turn to how organizations leverage their existing teams in the coming months. Instead of dramatically expanding full‑time headcount, structured internal mobility, reskilling and redeployment will be critical levers to watch in 2026.

How are workers feeling about risk and change this year?

Worker sentiment heading into 2026 is best described as “secure but watchful.” According to an iCIMS survey of 1,000 U.S. adults, 58% of workers say they are not concerned about being laid off this year, the same share as last year, which signals a baseline of stability. At the same time, nearly one‑third (31%) say changing jobs in today’s market feels too risky. This reflects ongoing caution about big career moves in an uncertain environment.

However, that caution is not complacency.

Forty‑five percent of workers still plan to look for a new role in 2026, up from 42% last year, indicating a quiet readiness to move for the right opportunity. More than two‑thirds of workers say they are less optimistic about the job market improving in 2026 than they were the year before, which suggests that when people do make a move, it will likely be driven by clarity and fit rather than urgency.

What experience do candidates actually want this year?

The report underscores that candidates want proof‑based hiring, not just promises. Nearly one‑third of workers (31%) say they would feel positive about a skills test or job simulation during the application process because it allows them to demonstrate their abilities. Another 45% are open to assessments if they are fast and relevant, while just 9% say skills tests would frustrate them. This will be a delicate balance for organizations to leverage well‑designed evaluations as a competitive advantage rather than a barrier.

Expectations for the hiring journey itself are also sharpening. Job seekers say clear role expectations (23%), transparent salary details (19%) and fast response times (18%) are the top signals that a company values candidates. Organizations that move quickly, communicate clearly and prioritize skills over credentials will be better positioned to convert high‑intent talent.

What does this data signal for executive teams?

The iCIMS Insights January Workforce Report offers clear insights for executive teams, CHROs and talent acquisition leaders planning for the year ahead.

• Candidate experience must function as a strategic asset. With more applicants in the market but a higher bar for where they apply, organizations that deliver clear expectations, transparent pay ranges, fast communication and skills‑based evaluation will stand out.

• Leaders should recognize that 2026 is not a holding pattern but a year in motion, with rising openings, active (if cautious) job seekers and evolving expectations that reward organizations willing to adapt how they attract, grow and retain talent.

• Internal mobility should be treated as a core lever, not a side project, with structured programs to identify, upskill, and redeploy employees into critical roles to reduce reliance on external hiring and accelerate time-to-fill. This is especially important in a market where internal interest is growing faster than internal opportunities.

Download your copy of this month’s iCIMS Insights report for all of the data and actionable insights you need to be successful in 2026.

Tune into the iCIMS YouTube channel as Trent Cotton breaks down key insights from the iCIMS January Workforce Report: 2026 Outlook, revealing where hiring demand is quietly rising, how worker behavior is changing, and what executive teams should be paying attention to right now.