The May employment report was less notable for the size of any particular upside surprise than the consistency of its upside surprises and the good news throughout. The rise in employment across the establishment and household surveys was on roughly the same scale, wage growth ticked back up, and the 3-month average in payroll growth returned to about 180k – comfortably within its range since late 2016. Intriguingly, the progress on several areas of labor market slack suggested that the U.S. labor market is not at full employment after all.
As iCIMS’ former chief economist, Josh Wright led a team of data scientists in analyzing emerging trends in the U.S. labor market. With publications ranging from academic journals to national media, Wright previously served as a U.S. economist with Bloomberg L.P., and was a staff researcher at the Federal Reserve.